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NFL 2023 – Super Bowl LVIII

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Not sure what was more improbable: a Super Bowl played in Las Vegas or a QB drafted with the last pick in the 2022 leading his team to the Super Bowl? The rapid evolution of Las Vegas into a professional sports mecca since sports betting has become legal across many jurisdictions across North America is truly astonishing.

Anyways, now that we’ve had two weeks of analysis to figure if a plane that leaves Tokyo Saturday night (Tokyo time) will make it to Vegas in time for kickoff Sunday night in Vegas, lets get to the football.

To be honest, after the last couple of weeks, not sure how folks can comfortably bet against the Chiefs as undergrounds. The line started at Chiefs+2.5 and has moved down to +1.5. That’s not just a gut feel either. Patrick Mahomes is 10-1-1 ATS as an underground. Just sayin.

49ers scrapped together just enough good football against the Packers and Lions to punch their ticket to Vegas, but at times it hasn’t looked pretty. In particular, their defense has been gashed for big plays both in the air and on the ground. While we don’t expect another repeat of their first half performance against the Lions, the Chiefs might be able to find some holes. Expect the 49ers to double Kelce the whole night, so we expect big games from some of their other receivers.

The 49ers have shown an ability to string together big plays on offense against the ropes. The Chiefs defense has looked impressive during the post-season, but they haven’t lined up against a squad with as many game breakers as the stacked 49ers unit. Like always, we expect the result to largely follow whoever wins in the trenches. If the 49ers are able to effectively get pressure on Mahomes and pin down Kelce with double teams, a Super Bowl repeat will be out of the question. If the Chiefs D can slow down the run and limit the big plays, 49ers will be in a world of hurt.

At the end of the day, we ain’t going to bet against Mahomes as an underground, so take the points and let’s all agree the best outcome is a close, competitive game.

We have also identified a few prop bets that we like if you’re looking to get some side action.

  • SF@KC+2.0
  • Christian McCaffrey UNDER 90.5 rushing yards
  • Patrick Mahomes UNDER 25.5 rushing yards
  • Rashee Rice OVER 68.5 receiving yards
  • Noah Grey OVER 13.5 receiving yards
  • Skyy Moore OVER 1.5 receiving yards
  • Brandon Aiyuk UNDER 62.5 receiving yards
  • Brock Purdy OVER 37.5 longest pass completion
  • Chris Jones OVER 0.5 sacks
  • Jauan Jennings OVER 1.5 receptions
  • Jake Moody OVER 7.5 kicking points

Conference Championship: 2-0

Regular Season Record: 124-122-11

Playoff Record: 6-6

NFL 2023 – Conference Championship

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And then there were only four teams left standing.

Last week we learned that Detroit is loud, the Kelce brothers are businessmen, Brock Purdy doesn’t like rain, and the Ravens D is real, real good. Now let’s throw all that out of the window and look at our two conference championship matchups. In the early game we have the Chiefs visiting the Ravens in Baltimore. Both teams are relatively healthy going into this one. The Ravens will have Pro Bowl TE Mark Andrews back in the lineup after missing most of the second half of the season. It will be a nice boost for Lamar, but expecting a big game from him might be a tad unrealistic. On the Chiefs side of the ball, there is good news and bad news. Looks like versatile running back Isiah Pacheco will be on the field Sunday night, but All Pro offensive lineman, Joe Thuney, will be sidelined with a pectoral injury. Expect the change on the offensive line to have a significant impact on the game. The Ravens D is looking dominant at this point in the season and Lamar and the offense is clicking. While the Ravens might look like the more imposing team, statistical the Ravens offense and defense are both rated sixth best in the NFL, whereas Chiefs have the ninth best offense in the league and the second best defense. We expect a close game in Baltimore, but find it hard to bet against Andy Reid’s Chiefs in the playoffs, particularly when they’re getting 4.5 points. We know everyone was eager to crown Josh Allen last week and look what happened. Folks are even more excited about Lamar becoming the king of the AFC, but not so fast. We think Mahomes will have something to say about that come Sunday.

On Sunday night, we have America’s team travelling to California to bite some kneecaps and take on the 49ers. The Detroit Lions looked impressive against the Bucs for most of the game, but it was still a little bit surprising that the door was still open for Baker at the end of the game to tie it up on the final drive. Both teams have prolific offenses that can put up points fast, with lots of the speed at the skill positions and dominant lineman. It will be interesting to see how both QBs handle the pressure of the moment as they have both been susceptible to turnovers in bunches at inopportune times. The outcome of the game will likely come down to Detroit’s ability to contain the 49ers backfield. Christian McCaffrey played well last week, but suspect he’ll get an even bigger workload this week with Deebo Samuel questionable to play with a shoulder injury. Expect another closer game here, with America’s team punching their ticket to their first Super Bowl in franchise history.

This week we are also including some props bets that we like below in bold.

  • KC@BAL-4.5
  • DET@SF-7.5
  • Lamar Jackson – anytime TD scorer +100
  • Clyde Edwards Helaire – over 7.5 yards rushing -100
  • Rashee Rice – over 60.5 yards receiving -110
  • Jahmyr Gibbs – anytime TD scorer +130
  • Christian McCaffrey over 36.5 receiving yards -110

Divisional Round: 1-3

Regular Season Record: 124-122-11

Playoff Record: 4-6

NFL 2023 – Divisional Round

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How about them Cowboys?!?! Talk about laying an egg. Pretty remarkable the Packers had a bunch of backups taking snaps in the fourth quarter. Another rookie QB, CJ Stroud, looked like the real deal in Houston knocking off the heavily favoured Cleveland Browns. Unfortunate timing for Joe Flacco to remind everyone why he was sitting at home for the first half of the season.

Looking forward to this weekend, the Ravens and the 49ers will be rested and relatively healthy for their Saturday matchups against the upstart Texans and Packers respectively. As always, I’m sure the commentators will be lamenting the fact that it might take a quarter or two to shake off the rest after the bye week. Both the Ravens and 49ers are double digit favourites at home. Texans should be able to keep it close with the Ravens, while we expect the 49ers to roll and end Jordan Love’s impressive first season under centre with an empathic exclamation point.

As for the Sunday matchups, we have the Bucs visiting the Lions and the Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs visiting Josh Allen and the Bills in primetime. Baker Mayfield looked like a playoff MVP candidate last week, tossing out three TDs against a lackluster Eagles D. We don’t expect a repeat in the Motor City and expect the Lions to pound the rock with their impressive O-Line.

Who doesn’t like a trilogy? Nobody, that’s who. This time though the Chiefs will need to lead the comfy confines of Arrowhead to face off against the Bills behind the full support of Bills Mafia. Josh Allen and the Bills had their season end last year at home against the Bengals and will be looking to avoid a similar fate Sunday. The Chiefs D has been formidable all season and really flexed against the high flying Dolphins last week. This one will be close and might come down to whichever team has the ball last.

Picks are highlighted below:

  • HOU@BAL-10.0
  • GB@SF-10.0
  • TB@DET-6.0
  • KC@BUF-2.5

Divisional Round Record: 3-3

Regular Season Record: 124-122-11

Playoff Record: 3-3

NFL 2023 – Wild Card Weekend

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Looks like weather is going to play a leading role this weekend. First round playoff matchups are also loaded with fascinating story lines!

We have Stafford returning to Detroit to face off with Goff and the Lions. Expect this one to be a track meet with lots of points on the board. Another homecoming game will see the Cheetah return to Arrowhead for a Dolphins-Chiefs tilt on the frozen tundra. Exclusively on Peacock ( I says pardon), Saturday night will feature Mahomes, Kelce, Tyreek, Tay Tay and the frozen tundra. What more could you ask for! The game in Kansas City is expected to the coldest game in NFL history. Dolphins don’t have a pray in this one and you can take that to the bank!

Joe Flacco and the Browns will look to knock off the upstart Texans in Houston, while the TJ Watt-less Steelers have their sights set on an epic matchup in Orchard Park, Buffalo. Weather could be the great equalizer in this one, but just remember the Steelers are starting Mason Rudolph against Josh Allen at the men in black and gold are 1-10 when TJ doesn’t play.

Rounding things out, we have Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers travelling to Jerry World to take on the Cowboys, while the struggling Eagles will visit the sunshine state to battle the Bucs. Cowboys are undefeated at home this season, while Jordan Love will see his first playoff action in this rookie season. Down in Tampa, the Eagles will be looking to right the ship against Baker and the boys. Seems like folks have been quick to right off the Eagles already and are speculating on the job security of Nick Sirianni when they inevitably lose this one. Two things here: Nick Sirianni took the Eagles to the Super Bowl last year and the Bucs struggle to put up a total of nine points against the lowly Panthers last week with a lot on the line. Just saying!

Like always, the picks for this week are in bold below. Good luck and welcome to the playoffs!

  • CLE@HOU+2.5
  • MIA@KC-4.5
  • PIT@BUF-10.0
  • GB@DAL-7.0
  • LAR@DET-3.0
  • PHI@TB+3.0

Week 18 Record: 10-6

Regular Season Record: 124-122-11

Playoff Record: 0-0

NFL 2023 – Week 18

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Sadly we’ve made it to the end of the regular season. On the other hand, we’re one week away from better matchups and better games. Not sure how many folks are tuning into the Jets-Pats in Foxbourgh or Broncos-Raiders in Vegas. Wondering if Russell Wilson will trot out to midfield for the coin flip again this week. That’s much watch TV right there!

Game of the week is easily the Sunday Night showdown with the Buffalo “Don’t write us off now” Bills visiting the Miami “We can’t beat good teams” Dolphins. Depending how things shake out on Sunday, the Bills can either win the division and earn the number two seed in the AFC or miss the playoffs all together. Wild spread on the potential outcomes for the Bills! Good luck Bills Mafia!

As for us, we’re looking for another winning week to secure an overall winning regular season record against the spread.

As always, the picks this week are in bold below.

  • PIT@BAL+3.0
  • HOU@IND+1.0
  • ATL@NO-3.0
  • CLE@CIN-7.5
  • JAX@TEN+4.5
  • MIN@DET-3.5
  • NYJ@NE-1.5
  • TB@CAR+4.0
  • CHI@GB-3.0
  • DAL@WAS+13.0
  • DEN@LV-3.0
  • KC@LAC-3.5
  • LAR@SF-4.0
  • PHI@NYG+5.0
  • SEA@ARZ+3.0
  • BUF@MIA+2.5

Week 17 Record: 6-10

Season Record: 114-116-11

NFL 2023 – Week 17

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Games are coming fast and furious at the end of the season. Hard to keep up, but man oh man, do we not love all Saturday night football!

Will be interesting to see how the Broncos respond to all the drama surrounding the Russell Wilson benching. Match up of the week is easily the Ravens-Dolphins tilt that will go a long way to deciding which team will land the one seed in the AFC. Also intrigued by the Steelers-Seahawks matchup in Seattle. Both teams are still in the hunt for the last playoff spot in their respective conferences, so desperation football should be on full display.

As always, this week’s picks are in bold below. Happy New Year and happy betting slips!

  • CLE@NYJ+6.5
  • DET@DAL-4.5
  • ARZ@PHI-12.5
  • ATL@CHI-2.5
  • CAR@JAX-3.5
  • LAR@NYG+6.0
  • LV@IND-3.5
  • MIA@BAL-3.0
  • NE@BUF-15.0
  • NO@TB-2.5
  • SF@WAS+14.0
  • TEN@HOU-5.5
  • PIT@SEA-4.0
  • CIN@KC-6.5
  • LAC@DEN-3.5
  • GB@MIN-1.0

Week 16 Record: 9-6-1

Season Record: 108-106-11