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NFL 2024 – Week 3

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Into the swing of things now, but still feels like summer out here in Ontario. Doesn’t quite yet feel like football season. After a hot 12-4 start week 1, a little dose of reality last week. With that being said, anyone have the Raiders beating the Ravens? How about Sam Darnold out dueling Brock Purdy and the Vikings sitting at 2-0? If you had that parlay, you should quit your day job and move straight to Vegas Monday morning.

As always, picks are below in bed for week 3! Happy betting!

  • NE@NYJ-6.5
  • CHI@IND-1.0
  • DEN@TB-6.0
  • GB@TEN-3.0
  • HOU@MIN+2.0
  • LAC@PIT-2.5
  • NYG@CLE-6.5
  • PHI@NO-2.5
  • CAR@LV-5.5
  • MIA@SEA-4.5
  • BAL@DAL+1.0
  • DET@ARZ+3.0
  • SF@LAR+6.5
  • KC@ATL+3.0
  • JAX@BUF-5.0
  • WAS@CIN-7.5

Week 2 Record: 6-9-1

Season Record: 18-13-1

NFL 2024 – Week 2

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Off to a hot start to the season, winning 12 out of the first 16 games!

A bunch of interesting match-ups in week 2, with the marque game being Bengals-Chiefs. At the other end of spectrum, we have a battle of likely cellar dwellers in the NFC East between the Giants and Commanders. Don’t expect too many eyeballs on that game.

We also think there are a couple of surprising lines this week. Lions by 7.5 points against the Bucs and the Cardinals favoured at home against the Rams? I says pardon!?!? Gonna fade both of Detroit and Arizona at home.

Here’s to staying hot in week 2! Picks are in bold below.

  • BUF@MIA-2.5
  • CLE@JAX-3.0
  • IND@GB+2.5
  • LAC@CAR+5.0
  • LV@BAL-8.5
  • NO@DAL-6.0
  • NYG@WAS-1.5
  • NYJ@TEN+4.0
  • SEA@NE+3.0
  • SF@MIN+4.5
  • TB@DET-7.5
  • LAR@ARZ-1.0
  • CIN@KC-6.0
  • PIT@DEN+2.5
  • CHI@HOU-6.5
  • ATL@PHI-6.0

Week 1 Record: 12-4

NFL 2024 – Week 1

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Yikes! The start of the season really creeped up on us this year. Here are the picks for week 1. Everyone can look forward to a more detailed breakdown for week 2. Same format as last year – the picks are in bold below.

  • BAL@KC-2.5
  • GB@PHI-1.5
  • ARZ@BUF-6.5
  • CAR@NO-3.5
  • HOU@IND+3.0
  • JAX@MIA-3.5
  • MIN@NYG+1.0
  • NE@CIN-7.5
  • PIT@ATL-4.0
  • TEN@CHI-4.0
  • DEN@SEA-6.5
  • LV@LAC-3.0
  • DAL@CLE-2.5
  • WAS@TB-3.5
  • LAR@DET-4.5
  • NYJ@SF-4.0

NFL 2023 – Super Bowl LVIII

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Not sure what was more improbable: a Super Bowl played in Las Vegas or a QB drafted with the last pick in the 2022 leading his team to the Super Bowl? The rapid evolution of Las Vegas into a professional sports mecca since sports betting has become legal across many jurisdictions across North America is truly astonishing.

Anyways, now that we’ve had two weeks of analysis to figure if a plane that leaves Tokyo Saturday night (Tokyo time) will make it to Vegas in time for kickoff Sunday night in Vegas, lets get to the football.

To be honest, after the last couple of weeks, not sure how folks can comfortably bet against the Chiefs as undergrounds. The line started at Chiefs+2.5 and has moved down to +1.5. That’s not just a gut feel either. Patrick Mahomes is 10-1-1 ATS as an underground. Just sayin.

49ers scrapped together just enough good football against the Packers and Lions to punch their ticket to Vegas, but at times it hasn’t looked pretty. In particular, their defense has been gashed for big plays both in the air and on the ground. While we don’t expect another repeat of their first half performance against the Lions, the Chiefs might be able to find some holes. Expect the 49ers to double Kelce the whole night, so we expect big games from some of their other receivers.

The 49ers have shown an ability to string together big plays on offense against the ropes. The Chiefs defense has looked impressive during the post-season, but they haven’t lined up against a squad with as many game breakers as the stacked 49ers unit. Like always, we expect the result to largely follow whoever wins in the trenches. If the 49ers are able to effectively get pressure on Mahomes and pin down Kelce with double teams, a Super Bowl repeat will be out of the question. If the Chiefs D can slow down the run and limit the big plays, 49ers will be in a world of hurt.

At the end of the day, we ain’t going to bet against Mahomes as an underground, so take the points and let’s all agree the best outcome is a close, competitive game.

We have also identified a few prop bets that we like if you’re looking to get some side action.

  • SF@KC+2.0
  • Christian McCaffrey UNDER 90.5 rushing yards
  • Patrick Mahomes UNDER 25.5 rushing yards
  • Rashee Rice OVER 68.5 receiving yards
  • Noah Grey OVER 13.5 receiving yards
  • Skyy Moore OVER 1.5 receiving yards
  • Brandon Aiyuk UNDER 62.5 receiving yards
  • Brock Purdy OVER 37.5 longest pass completion
  • Chris Jones OVER 0.5 sacks
  • Jauan Jennings OVER 1.5 receptions
  • Jake Moody OVER 7.5 kicking points

Conference Championship: 2-0

Regular Season Record: 124-122-11

Playoff Record: 6-6

NFL 2023 – Conference Championship

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And then there were only four teams left standing.

Last week we learned that Detroit is loud, the Kelce brothers are businessmen, Brock Purdy doesn’t like rain, and the Ravens D is real, real good. Now let’s throw all that out of the window and look at our two conference championship matchups. In the early game we have the Chiefs visiting the Ravens in Baltimore. Both teams are relatively healthy going into this one. The Ravens will have Pro Bowl TE Mark Andrews back in the lineup after missing most of the second half of the season. It will be a nice boost for Lamar, but expecting a big game from him might be a tad unrealistic. On the Chiefs side of the ball, there is good news and bad news. Looks like versatile running back Isiah Pacheco will be on the field Sunday night, but All Pro offensive lineman, Joe Thuney, will be sidelined with a pectoral injury. Expect the change on the offensive line to have a significant impact on the game. The Ravens D is looking dominant at this point in the season and Lamar and the offense is clicking. While the Ravens might look like the more imposing team, statistical the Ravens offense and defense are both rated sixth best in the NFL, whereas Chiefs have the ninth best offense in the league and the second best defense. We expect a close game in Baltimore, but find it hard to bet against Andy Reid’s Chiefs in the playoffs, particularly when they’re getting 4.5 points. We know everyone was eager to crown Josh Allen last week and look what happened. Folks are even more excited about Lamar becoming the king of the AFC, but not so fast. We think Mahomes will have something to say about that come Sunday.

On Sunday night, we have America’s team travelling to California to bite some kneecaps and take on the 49ers. The Detroit Lions looked impressive against the Bucs for most of the game, but it was still a little bit surprising that the door was still open for Baker at the end of the game to tie it up on the final drive. Both teams have prolific offenses that can put up points fast, with lots of the speed at the skill positions and dominant lineman. It will be interesting to see how both QBs handle the pressure of the moment as they have both been susceptible to turnovers in bunches at inopportune times. The outcome of the game will likely come down to Detroit’s ability to contain the 49ers backfield. Christian McCaffrey played well last week, but suspect he’ll get an even bigger workload this week with Deebo Samuel questionable to play with a shoulder injury. Expect another closer game here, with America’s team punching their ticket to their first Super Bowl in franchise history.

This week we are also including some props bets that we like below in bold.

  • KC@BAL-4.5
  • DET@SF-7.5
  • Lamar Jackson – anytime TD scorer +100
  • Clyde Edwards Helaire – over 7.5 yards rushing -100
  • Rashee Rice – over 60.5 yards receiving -110
  • Jahmyr Gibbs – anytime TD scorer +130
  • Christian McCaffrey over 36.5 receiving yards -110

Divisional Round: 1-3

Regular Season Record: 124-122-11

Playoff Record: 4-6

NFL 2023 – Divisional Round

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How about them Cowboys?!?! Talk about laying an egg. Pretty remarkable the Packers had a bunch of backups taking snaps in the fourth quarter. Another rookie QB, CJ Stroud, looked like the real deal in Houston knocking off the heavily favoured Cleveland Browns. Unfortunate timing for Joe Flacco to remind everyone why he was sitting at home for the first half of the season.

Looking forward to this weekend, the Ravens and the 49ers will be rested and relatively healthy for their Saturday matchups against the upstart Texans and Packers respectively. As always, I’m sure the commentators will be lamenting the fact that it might take a quarter or two to shake off the rest after the bye week. Both the Ravens and 49ers are double digit favourites at home. Texans should be able to keep it close with the Ravens, while we expect the 49ers to roll and end Jordan Love’s impressive first season under centre with an empathic exclamation point.

As for the Sunday matchups, we have the Bucs visiting the Lions and the Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs visiting Josh Allen and the Bills in primetime. Baker Mayfield looked like a playoff MVP candidate last week, tossing out three TDs against a lackluster Eagles D. We don’t expect a repeat in the Motor City and expect the Lions to pound the rock with their impressive O-Line.

Who doesn’t like a trilogy? Nobody, that’s who. This time though the Chiefs will need to lead the comfy confines of Arrowhead to face off against the Bills behind the full support of Bills Mafia. Josh Allen and the Bills had their season end last year at home against the Bengals and will be looking to avoid a similar fate Sunday. The Chiefs D has been formidable all season and really flexed against the high flying Dolphins last week. This one will be close and might come down to whichever team has the ball last.

Picks are highlighted below:

  • HOU@BAL-10.0
  • GB@SF-10.0
  • TB@DET-6.0
  • KC@BUF-2.5

Divisional Round Record: 3-3

Regular Season Record: 124-122-11

Playoff Record: 3-3