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Championship weekend picks

NFL 2023 – Conference Championship

January 28, 2024 by mvphelps Leave a Comment

And then there were only four teams left standing.

Last week we learned that Detroit is loud, the Kelce brothers are businessmen, Brock Purdy doesn’t like rain, and the Ravens D is real, real good. Now let’s throw all that out of the window and look at our two conference championship matchups. In the early game we have the Chiefs visiting the Ravens in Baltimore. Both teams are relatively healthy going into this one. The Ravens will have Pro Bowl TE Mark Andrews back in the lineup after missing most of the second half of the season. It will be a nice boost for Lamar, but expecting a big game from him might be a tad unrealistic. On the Chiefs side of the ball, there is good news and bad news. Looks like versatile running back Isiah Pacheco will be on the field Sunday night, but All Pro offensive lineman, Joe Thuney, will be sidelined with a pectoral injury. Expect the change on the offensive line to have a significant impact on the game. The Ravens D is looking dominant at this point in the season and Lamar and the offense is clicking. While the Ravens might look like the more imposing team, statistical the Ravens offense and defense are both rated sixth best in the NFL, whereas Chiefs have the ninth best offense in the league and the second best defense. We expect a close game in Baltimore, but find it hard to bet against Andy Reid’s Chiefs in the playoffs, particularly when they’re getting 4.5 points. We know everyone was eager to crown Josh Allen last week and look what happened. Folks are even more excited about Lamar becoming the king of the AFC, but not so fast. We think Mahomes will have something to say about that come Sunday.

On Sunday night, we have America’s team travelling to California to bite some kneecaps and take on the 49ers. The Detroit Lions looked impressive against the Bucs for most of the game, but it was still a little bit surprising that the door was still open for Baker at the end of the game to tie it up on the final drive. Both teams have prolific offenses that can put up points fast, with lots of the speed at the skill positions and dominant lineman. It will be interesting to see how both QBs handle the pressure of the moment as they have both been susceptible to turnovers in bunches at inopportune times. The outcome of the game will likely come down to Detroit’s ability to contain the 49ers backfield. Christian McCaffrey played well last week, but suspect he’ll get an even bigger workload this week with Deebo Samuel questionable to play with a shoulder injury. Expect another closer game here, with America’s team punching their ticket to their first Super Bowl in franchise history.

This week we are also including some props bets that we like below in bold.

  • KC@BAL-4.5
  • DET@SF-7.5
  • Lamar Jackson – anytime TD scorer +100
  • Clyde Edwards Helaire – over 7.5 yards rushing -100
  • Rashee Rice – over 60.5 yards receiving -110
  • Jahmyr Gibbs – anytime TD scorer +130
  • Christian McCaffrey over 36.5 receiving yards -110

Divisional Round: 1-3

Regular Season Record: 124-122-11

Playoff Record: 4-6

Filed Under: NFL Tagged With: Championship weekend picks, NFL picks

NFL Championship Round Picks

January 30, 2022 by wpengine Leave a Comment

So coming off an epic divisional round, I expect the games this weekend to be a little of a let down.

Cincinnati @ Kansas City (-7.5)

Last weekend against the Titans, the Bengals became the first team in NFL post season history to give up 9 sacks and still win. In their last six games, the Bengals are 6-0 ATS (against the spread). In only his second season in the NFL, Joe Burrow will be playing in his first AFC Championship game. Suspect it won’t be his last, but at some point you’d think the young stud would have a deer in the headlights kind of game given everything on the line. On the other sideline, Mr. Grim Reaper and the Chiefs will be playing in their fourth consecutive Championship game. These two teams played each other in Week 17 with the Bengals coming from behind to win 34-31. I’m not putting too much stock in that one as the Chiefs got up 28-17 at halftime and then it felt like they mentally checked out during the break and were busy checking their crypto accounts in the locker room. While I think the Bengals will hang around, the Chiefs are coming off a game where they hung 42 points on an excellent Bills defence and I don’t think the Bengals can keep up. Gonna be a shootout!

The Pick: Chiefs +7.5

Favourite prop bet: Frank Clark to record a sack (+112)

San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams (-3.5)

A nice little NFC West grudge match to decide who goes to the Super Bowl. Coach Shanahan runs the Rams’ show having won six straight against McVay and the boys in blue. In week 18, the 49ers erased a 17-0 deficit and stormed back to punch their ticket to the playoffs in a thrilling OT finish. Despite that tough beat, I think the Rams will come into this game full of confidence and thinking that if they execute their game plan for the full 60-minutes, they’ll be playing at Sofi Stadium in two weeks time for the Lombardi Trophy. The quarterback play from Jimmy G hasn’t been elite in recent weeks, but the 49ers are a determined group with explosive play makers (Deebo Samuel and George Kittle) and a scary good front 7 when healthy. I just don’t think it’s going to be enough against a Rams squad that is loaded on both sides of the ball. Midseason acquisitions Von Miller and OBJ have once again established themselves as game changers and complement the all-world talents of Aaron Donald, Jalen Ramsey, Cooper Kupp, and Matt Stafford. I think the 49ers are going to need a couple of gift wrapped turnovers to keep the game within striking distance and I don’t see that happening this week. I guarantee Akers will be sure handed coming off a two-fumble performance last week in Tampa and believe McVay will put his quarterback in a position to eliminate some of the inconsistencies we’ve seen from Stafford over the course of the season. If the Rams O-line can hold up against an relentless 49ers pass rush and buy Stafford an extra beat or two, the Rams receivers are going to cook all night long.

The Pick: Rams (-3.5)

Favourite Prop Bet: OBJ Receiving Yards – O/54.5(-105)

Filed Under: NFL Tagged With: Championship weekend picks, KC-CIN, NFL picks

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